New Delhi: It is likely that as high as 50 per cent of Indians would have already been infected with COVID-19 by February 2021, helping slow the virus spread, a member of a federal government committee tasked with providing projections said.
"Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February", said Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member.
The committee’s estimate for the current spread of coronavirus is much higher than the government’s sero surveys.
The serological showed that as of September, only around 14 per cent of the Indian population had been infected.
However, Agrawal said sero surveys may not be able to get the sampling correct due to the sheer size of the population being surveyed.
The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed.
Further, it said COVID-19 cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if measures such as social distancing and wearing masks were ignored.